4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 88

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 8-D.Kaser punts 63 yards to NYJ 25, Center-47-M.Windt. 87-J.Natson pushed ob at NYJ 30 for 5 yards (84-S.McGrath).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.15 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 88, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 46, worth -2.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model