Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 76

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(9:23) 8-D.Kaser punts 44 yards to NYJ 32, Center-47-M.Windt. 87-J.Natson to NYJ 32 for no gain (48-N.Dzubnar). PENALTY on NYJ-85-N.Sterling, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 32.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.96 EP
58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 76, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model