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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 52

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(:15) 8-D.Kaser punts 40 yards to NYJ 12, Center-47-M.Windt. 87-J.Natson to NYJ 5 for -7 yards (34-D.Watt).

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +0.42 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 52, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model