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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 70

New York Jets 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:58) 4-L.Edwards punts 47 yards to LAC 23, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin. PENALTY on LAC-87-J.Cumberland, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 23.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.80 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 28, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model