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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 72

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(5:28) 8-D.Kaser punts 58 yards to NYJ 14, Center-47-M.Windt. 87-J.Natson to NYJ 23 for 9 yards (31-A.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.22 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 72, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 30, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model