4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 57

New York Jets 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:13) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to LAC 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-T.Benjamin ran ob at LAC 14 for 6 yards. PENALTY on LAC-25-R.Jenkins, Unnecessary Roughness, 7 yards, enforced at LAC 14.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.90 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model