Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 72

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – New York Jets 0

(:27) 8-D.Kaser punts 53 yards to NYJ 19, Center-47-M.Windt. 87-J.Natson ran ob at NYJ 30 for 11 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.62 EP
60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 72, worth -4.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model