Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 78

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Miami Dolphins 13

(1:50) 2-D.Colquitt punts 49 yards to MIA 29, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.27 EP
58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 78, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model