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Miami Dolphins

6-9 HC Adam Gase
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Kansas City Chiefs

9-6 HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2017-12-24 · 13:00 ET Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 💨 Windy Spread 11.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

MIA
26.9%
KC
73.1%
💨 Windy

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.159 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Alex Smith (KC) +0.127 vs Jay Cutler (MIA) -0.070 EPA/dropback
  • KC offense: +0.012 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Wind 15 mph

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIA 17 10–24
–
KC 25 18–32
Projected margin: KC by 8 Projected total: 42

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 16

MIA

Matt Moore QB Doubtful Foot
Damien Williams RB Doubtful Shoulder
Andre Branch DE Questionable Knee
Terrence Fede DE Questionable Knee
DeVante Parker WR Questionable Ankle
Cordrea Tankersley CB Questionable Ankle
T.J. McDonald S Questionable Shoulder
Michael Thomas S Questionable Knee

KC

Justin Houston LB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 13
–
KC 29

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:45 FG KC (9:45) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. MIA 0 – KC 3
  • Q1 03:33 FG MIA (3:33) 1-C.Parkey 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. MIA 3 – KC 3
  • Q2 13:04 TD KC (13:04) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 87-T.Kelce for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – KC 9
  • Q2 08:14 FG MIA (8:14) 1-C.Parkey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. MIA 6 – KC 10
  • Q2 03:41 TD KC (3:41) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – KC 16
  • Q2 03:34 TD MIA (3:34) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left to 19-J.Grant for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 12 – KC 17
  • Q2 00:11 FG KC (:11) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. MIA 13 – KC 20
  • Q3 10:27 FG KC (10:27) 7-H.Butker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. MIA 13 – KC 23
  • Q4 12:19 FG KC (12:19) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. MIA 13 – KC 26
  • Q4 03:46 FG KC (3:46) 7-H.Butker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. MIA 13 – KC 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 94%

    (9:45) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIA 4th & 14 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 79%

    (3:33) 1-C.Parkey 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

    (8:14) 1-C.Parkey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:50) 2-D.Colquitt punts 49 yards to MIA 29, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 9 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:55) 16-M.Haack punts 25 yards to KC 45, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 7 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 94%

    (:11) 7-H.Butker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (10:27) 7-H.Butker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:59) 16-M.Haack punts 34 yards to KC 41, Center-92-J.Denney. 10-T.Hill to KC 42 for 1 yard (35-W.Aikens; 19-J.Grant).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 89%

    (4:10) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt up the middle to MIA 19 for no gain (20-R.Jones; 93-N.Suh).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%

    (12:19) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 31 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 68%

    (3:46) 7-H.Butker 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 15 at the 69 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:38) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete deep left to 10-K.Stills (56-D.Johnson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 75%

    (2:00) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 10 at the 53 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 15%

    (1:10) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete deep right to 11-D.Parker.

    See the full breakdown →