Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 75

Miami Dolphins 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 23

(8:59) 16-M.Haack punts 34 yards to KC 41, Center-92-J.Denney. 10-T.Hill to KC 42 for 1 yard (35-W.Aikens; 19-J.Grant).

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.02 EP
68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 75, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model