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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 11

Kansas City Chiefs 23 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.40 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 11, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 22, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model