Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 15 at the 69

Miami Dolphins 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 29

(2:38) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass incomplete deep left to 10-K.Stills (56-D.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

What Happened

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.59 EP
74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 69, worth -3.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.77 EP