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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 61

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(12:37) 8-J.Vogel punts 40 yards to MIN 21, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.80 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 61, worth -3.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 20, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model