MIN @ GB — 4th & Data

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HC Mike Zimmer

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HC Mike McCarthy

Saturday 2017-12-23 · 20:30 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌨 Snow Spread -8.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

MIN

65.4%

34.6%

🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

QB edge to MIN: Brett Hundley (GB) -0.137 vs Case Keenum (MIN) +0.177 EPA/dropback (GB starting Brett Hundley in place of Aaron Rodgers)
MIN offense: +0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
GB defense: +0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
MIN defense: -0.151 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 24

–

GB 19

Projected margin: MIN by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

MIN

Tramaine Brock CB Out Foot

Mackensie Alexander CB Questionable Rib

Andrew Sendejo S Questionable Ankle

Riley Reiff T Questionable Ankle

GB

Davante Adams WR Out Concussion

Demetri Goodson CB Out Hamstring

Nick Perry LB Doubtful Ankle

Jahri Evans G Questionable Knee

Clay Matthews LB Questionable Hamstring

Davon House CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 16

–

GB 0

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 27 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 08:33 FG MIN (8:33) 2-K.Forbath 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. MIN 3 – GB 0
Q1 01:02 TD MIN (1:02) 63-D.Isidora reported in as eligible. 7-C.Keenum pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 9 – GB 0
Q3 01:23 FG MIN (1:23) 2-K.Forbath 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-D.Morgan, Holder-4-R.Quigley. MIN 13 – GB 0
Q4 03:00 FG MIN (3:00) 2-K.Forbath 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-D.Morgan, Holder-4-R.Quigley. MIN 16 – GB 0

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 GB 4th & 6 at the 53

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 20%

(12:25) 8-J.Vogel punts 23 yards to MIN 30, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.
Q1 MIN 4th & 7 at the 31

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 73%

(8:33) 2-K.Forbath 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.
Q1 GB 4th & 6 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(6:30) 8-J.Vogel punts 51 yards to MIN 17, Center-61-B.Goode. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 28 for 11 yards (25-M.Evans).
Q1 MIN 4th & 11 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(4:55) 4-R.Quigley punts 50 yards to GB 23, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-T.Davis to GB 28 for 5 yards (30-C.Ham).
Q1 GB 4th & 3 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 51%

(3:15) 8-J.Vogel punts 33 yards to MIN 32, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.
Q2 GB 4th & 11 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(12:37) 8-J.Vogel punts 40 yards to MIN 21, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.
Q2 MIN 4th & 4 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 52%

(11:12) 4-R.Quigley punts 35 yards to GB 38, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-41-A.Harris.
Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 54

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP

p(convert) 57%

(9:46) 8-J.Vogel punts 43 yards to MIN 11, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.
Q2 MIN 4th & 5 at the 52

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 22%

(4:58) 4-R.Quigley punts 29 yards to GB 23, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.
Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 69

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 73%

(:27) 4-R.Quigley punts 46 yards to GB 23, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-T.Davis ran ob at GB 35 for 12 yards (30-C.Ham). MIN-47-K.McDermott was injured during the play.
Q3 MIN 4th & 3 at the 47

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP

p(convert) 54% p(FG) 33%

(12:04) 4-R.Quigley punts 32 yards to GB 15, Center-89-D.Morgan, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.
Q3 GB 4th & 7 at the 36

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 61%

(7:37) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass incomplete deep right to 89-M.Clark.
Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 2

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP

p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

(1:23) 2-K.Forbath 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-D.Morgan, Holder-4-R.Quigley.
Q4 GB 4th & 13 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(15:00) 8-J.Vogel punts 41 yards to MIN 27, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.
Q4 MIN 4th & 10 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(13:42) 4-R.Quigley punts 38 yards to GB 35, Center-89-D.Morgan. 11-T.Davis to GB 47 for 12 yards (41-A.Harris).
Q4 GB 4th & 3 at the 13

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45% p(FG) 95%

(10:09) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass incomplete short left to 89-M.Clark.
Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 52

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP

p(convert) 49% p(FG) 22%

(6:47) 4-R.Quigley punts 47 yards to GB 5, Center-89-D.Morgan, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.
Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 71 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.06 EP

p(convert) 32%

(4:03) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass incomplete deep right to 89-M.Clark. PENALTY on GB, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at GB 29.
Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 9 late-game

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%

(3:00) 2-K.Forbath 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-89-D.Morgan, Holder-4-R.Quigley.
Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 57 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 68%

(2:04) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass short right intended for 84-L.Kendricks INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith at GB 48. 22-H.Smith to GB 48 for no gain (84-L.Kendricks).