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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 52

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:58) 4-R.Quigley punts 29 yards to GB 23, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.74 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.73 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model