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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 69

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(:27) 4-R.Quigley punts 46 yards to GB 23, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-T.Davis ran ob at GB 35 for 12 yards (30-C.Ham). MIN-47-K.McDermott was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.71 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 69, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 27, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model