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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 47

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:04) 4-R.Quigley punts 32 yards to GB 15, Center-89-D.Morgan, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.04 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.40 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP