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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 36

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(7:37) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass incomplete deep right to 89-M.Clark.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.17 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 36, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 46, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model