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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 73

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 4-R.Quigley punts 38 yards to GB 35, Center-89-D.Morgan. 11-T.Davis to GB 47 for 12 yards (41-A.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.79 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model