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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 52

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:47) 4-R.Quigley punts 47 yards to GB 5, Center-89-D.Morgan, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.55 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP