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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 31

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:33) 2-K.Forbath 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.24 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model