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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 68

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 8-J.Vogel punts 51 yards to MIN 17, Center-61-B.Goode. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 28 for 11 yards (25-M.Evans).

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.28 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 68, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 26, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model