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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 73

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:55) 4-R.Quigley punts 50 yards to GB 23, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-T.Davis to GB 28 for 5 yards (30-C.Ham).

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.70 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model