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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 65

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 8-J.Vogel punts 33 yards to MIN 32, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.10 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 65, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 23, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model