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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 45

New York Giants 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(:04) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to ARI 8, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.20 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.55 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model