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New York Giants

HC Steve Spagnuolo
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2017-12-24 · 16:25 University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

NYG
43.3%
ARI
56.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.141 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • ARI offense: -0.193 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.146 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • QB edge to NYG: Drew Stanton (ARI) -0.201 vs Eli Manning (NYG) -0.050 EPA/dropback (ARI starting Drew Stanton in place of Blaine Gabbert)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NYG defense: +0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 19
–
ARI 21
Projected margin: ARI by 2 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

NYG

B.J. Goodson LB Out Ankle
Tavarres King WR Out Concussion
Nat Berhe S Questionable Hamstring
Landon Collins S Questionable Ankle
Jason Pierre-Paul DE Questionable Finger

ARI

Josh Bynes LB Out Ankle
Troy Niklas TE Out Ankle
Earl Watford G Out Ankle
Chad Williams WR Questionable Illness
Antoine Bethea S Questionable Knee
John Brown WR Questionable Toe
Karlos Dansby LB Questionable Knee
Gabe Martin LB Questionable Hamstring
Olsen Pierre DT Questionable Illness
Kerwynn Williams RB Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 0
–
ARI 23

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:33 FG ARI (5:33) 4-P.Dawson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. NYG 0 – ARI 3
  • Q2 01:07 TD ARI (1:07) (Shotgun) 5-D.Stanton pass short left to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – ARI 9
  • Q3 09:30 TD ARI (9:30) (Shotgun) 5-D.Stanton pass short right to 12-J.Brown for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – ARI 16
  • Q4 15:00 TD ARI (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning sacked at NYG 20 for -8 yards (20-D.Bucannon). FUMBLES (20-D.Bucannon) [20-D.Bucannon], RECOVERED by ARI-90-R.Nkemdiche at NYG 21. 90-R.Nkemdiche for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – ARI 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:57) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to ARI 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:43) 2-A.Lee punts 46 yards to NYG 23, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 84-H.Sharp. PENALTY on NYG-24-E.Apple, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 23.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 10 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:53) 9-B.Wing punts 36 yards to NYG 49, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (5:33) 4-P.Dawson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 43%

    (:04) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to ARI 8, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 7 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:38) 2-A.Lee punts 49 yards to NYG 40, Center-46-A.Brewer. 84-H.Sharp to ARI 47 for 13 yards (36-B.Baker).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 58%

    (11:53) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 85-R.Ellison to ARI 24 for 15 yards (36-B.Baker).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 94%

    (9:03) 2-A.Rosas 33 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 13 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 48%

    (6:13) 2-A.Lee punts 31 yards to NYG 12, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 84-H.Sharp. PENALTY on NYG-36-R.Murphy, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at NYG 12.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (3:13) 9-B.Wing punts 49 yards to ARI 21, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 8 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 36%

    (7:05) 9-B.Wing punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:06) 2-A.Lee punts 58 yards to NYG 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 84-H.Sharp pushed ob at NYG 20 for no gain (13-Ja.Brown).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 51%

    (2:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short right to 87-S.Shepard.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 25%

    (13:37) 9-B.Wing punts 47 yards to ARI 6, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 15 for 9 yards (51-Z.DeOssie).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:30) 2-A.Lee punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 68%

    (4:01) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 85-R.Ellison.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 29%

    (:28) 2-A.Lee punts 41 yards to NYG 10, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 84-H.Sharp.