Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 89

Arizona Cardinals 3 – New York Giants 0

(13:38) 2-A.Lee punts 49 yards to NYG 40, Center-46-A.Brewer. 84-H.Sharp to ARI 47 for 13 yards (36-B.Baker).

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.93 EP
60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 89, worth -4.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model