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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 39

New York Giants 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(11:53) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 85-R.Ellison to ARI 24 for 15 yards (36-B.Baker).

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.25 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 39, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model