Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 69

Arizona Cardinals 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:43) 2-A.Lee punts 46 yards to NYG 23, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 84-H.Sharp. PENALTY on NYG-24-E.Apple, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.52 EP
66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 69, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model