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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 78

Arizona Cardinals 16 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 2-A.Lee punts 58 yards to NYG 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 84-H.Sharp pushed ob at NYG 20 for no gain (13-Ja.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.46 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 78, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 35, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model