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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 42

New York Giants 0 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(2:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short right to 87-S.Shepard.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.29 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 42, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model