4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 53

New York Giants 0 – Arizona Cardinals 23

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 9-B.Wing punts 47 yards to ARI 6, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 15 for 9 yards (51-Z.DeOssie).

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.95 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 53, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.60 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model