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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New York Giants
4th & 1 at the 35
New York Giants 0 – Arizona Cardinals 23
What Actually Happened
(4:01) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short left to 85-R.Ellison.
The Three Options
GO
+1.66 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.32 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.26 EP
KICK
+0.86 EP
- 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
- 32% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT
-0.39 EP
- Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
