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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 59

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(10:44) 8-D.Jones punts 46 yards to LV 13, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.78 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 59, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP