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OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
Monday 2017-12-25 · 20:30 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 🌧 Rain Spread 10.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

OAK
36.5%
PHI
63.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.132 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Nick Foles (PHI): -0.201 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PHI defense: -0.153 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

OAK 18
–
PHI 23
Projected margin: PHI by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

OAK

Mario Edwards DE Out Ankle
Treyvon Hester DT Out Ankle
David Amerson CB Doubtful Foot
Denico Autry DE Questionable Hand
Amari Cooper WR Questionable Ankle
Rodney Hudson C Questionable Ankle
Bruce Irvin LB Questionable Concussion
Dexter McDonald CB Questionable Knee
Keith McGill S Questionable Knee

PHI

Mychal Kendricks LB Questionable Foot
Jalen Mills CB Questionable Ankle
Stefen Wisniewski G Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 10
–
PHI 19

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:59 TD PHI (2:59) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 36-J.Ajayi for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 0 – PHI 6
  • Q2 12:46 TD LV (12:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 89-A.Cooper for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 6 – PHI 7
  • Q3 10:54 FG LV (10:54) 2-G.Tavecchio 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 10 – PHI 7
  • Q3 02:17 FG PHI (2:17) 4-J.Elliott 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. OAK 10 – PHI 10
  • Q4 00:27 FG PHI (:27) 4-J.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. OAK 10 – PHI 13
  • Q4 00:03 TD PHI (:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 89-A.Cooper to LV 33 for -3 yards. Lateral to 30-J.Richard to LV 30 for -3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by PHI-96-D.Barnett at LV 23. 96-D.Barnett for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 10 – PHI 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (14:04) 8-D.Jones punts 30 yards to LV 40, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 38%

    (9:12) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short right to 15-M.Crabtree.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 87%

    (4:41) 30-C.Clement up the middle to LV 19 for 2 yards (52-K.Mack).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (1:45) 7-M.King punts 44 yards to PHI 20, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-41-E.Harris.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (14:11) 8-D.Jones punts 48 yards to LV 18, Center-45-R.Lovato. 30-J.Richard to LV 26 for 8 yards (32-R.Douglas).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:44) 8-D.Jones punts 46 yards to LV 13, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 13 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 20%

    (3:16) 7-M.King punts 33 yards to PHI 17, Center-59-J.Condo. 38-K.Barner to PHI 24 for 7 yards (16-J.Holton).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 52%

    (:41) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz pushed ob at LV 33 for 4 yards (32-A.Hamilton).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 93%

    (:15) 4-J.Elliott 33 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 97%

    (10:54) 2-G.Tavecchio 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:58) 8-D.Jones punts 36 yards to LV 37, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 12 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (7:23) 7-M.King punts 43 yards to PHI 22, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-84-C.Patterson.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 19 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:46) 8-D.Jones punts 51 yards to LV 36, Center-45-R.Lovato. 30-J.Richard to LV 48 for 12 yards (45-R.Lovato).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 9 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 91%

    (2:17) 4-J.Elliott 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 11 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (14:08) 7-M.King punts 36 yards to PHI 19, Center-59-J.Condo. 38-K.Barner to PHI 27 for 8 yards (50-N.Morrow).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 7 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 71%

    (8:03) 2-G.Tavecchio 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 78 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (4:57) 8-D.Jones punts 37 yards to LV 41, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-47-N.Gerry.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 11 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:35) 7-M.King punts 50 yards to PHI 10, Center-59-J.Condo. 38-K.Barner MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 9. 38-K.Barner to PHI 12 for 3 yards (16-J.Holton; 91-S.Calhoun).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 12 at the 90 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:17) 8-D.Jones punts 44 yards to LV 46, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-45-R.Lovato.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 31 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 68%

    (:27) 4-J.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 64 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 32%

    (:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 89-A.Cooper to LV 33 for -3 yards. Lateral to 30-J.Richard to LV 30 for -3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by PHI-96-D.Barnett at LV 23. 96-D.Barnett for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.