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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 37

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(:41) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz pushed ob at LV 33 for 4 yards (32-A.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.20 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 37, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model