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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 73

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 8-D.Jones punts 36 yards to LV 37, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

The Three Options

GO -1.74 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 31, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model