Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

(7:23) 7-M.King punts 43 yards to PHI 22, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-84-C.Patterson.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.53 EP
70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 65, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model