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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 17

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(2:17) 4-J.Elliott 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.46 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 17, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 27, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model