Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 60

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 7-M.King punts 50 yards to PHI 10, Center-59-J.Condo. 38-K.Barner MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 9. 38-K.Barner to PHI 12 for 3 yards (16-J.Holton; 91-S.Calhoun).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +1.91 EP
70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 60, worth -2.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model