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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 90

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 8-D.Jones punts 44 yards to LV 46, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-45-R.Lovato.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.50 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 90, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 47, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model