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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 64

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 89-A.Cooper to LV 33 for -3 yards. Lateral to 30-J.Richard to LV 30 for -3 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by PHI-96-D.Barnett at LV 23. 96-D.Barnett for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.11 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 64, worth -0.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT +0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 22, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.54 EP