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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 64

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 7-M.King punts 44 yards to PHI 20, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-41-E.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.89 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 64, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 22, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model