Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 66

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

(14:11) 8-D.Jones punts 48 yards to LV 18, Center-45-R.Lovato. 30-J.Richard to LV 26 for 8 yards (32-R.Douglas).

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.16 EP
48% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 66, worth -3.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model