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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 10

Carolina Panthers 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 9-G.Gano 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.86 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP