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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
Sunday 2017-12-24 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.0 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

TB
33.6%
CAR
66.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: -0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • CAR defense: -0.093 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 19
–
CAR 24
Projected margin: CAR by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

TB

Robert Ayers DE Out Shoulder
DeSean Jackson WR Out Ankle
Ryan Smith CB Doubtful Ankle
Gerald McCoy DT Questionable Biceps
Cameron Brate TE Questionable Hip
Lavonte David LB Questionable Hamstring
Ryan Russell DE Questionable Shoulder

CAR

Trai Turner G Out Concussion
Mario Addison DE Questionable Hip
Devin Funchess WR Questionable Shoulder
Tyler Larsen G Questionable Foot
Russell Shepard WR Questionable Shoulder
Shaq Thompson LB Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 19
–
CAR 22

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:17 FG CAR (8:17) 9-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. TB 0 – CAR 3
  • Q1 02:27 FG TB (2:27) 7-P.Murray 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 3 – CAR 3
  • Q2 08:42 FG CAR (8:42) 9-G.Gano 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. TB 3 – CAR 6
  • Q2 03:02 FG TB (3:02) 7-P.Murray 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 6 – CAR 6
  • Q2 02:58 TD CAR 7-P.Murray kicks 68 yards from TB 35 to CAR -3. 18-D.Byrd for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – CAR 12
  • Q2 00:05 FG TB (:05) 7-P.Murray 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 9 – CAR 12
  • Q3 10:36 TD TB (10:36) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left to 85-B.Wilson for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 15 – CAR 12
  • Q3 04:53 FG CAR (4:53) 9-G.Gano 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. TB 16 – CAR 15
  • Q4 15:00 FG TB (15:00) 7-P.Murray 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 19 – CAR 15
  • Q4 00:39 TD CAR (:39) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 2, and recovers at TB 3. 1-C.Newton for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 19 – CAR 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 6 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (8:17) 9-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 7 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%

    (2:27) 7-P.Murray 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 16 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:38) 5-M.Palardy punts 41 yards to TB 45, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 5 at the 10
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%

    (8:42) 9-G.Gano 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:51) 9-B.Anger punts 50 yards to CAR 27, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 12-K.Clay to CAR 30 for 3 yards (59-D.Bond).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (5:24) 5-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to TB 16, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 2 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 95%

    (4:53) 9-G.Gano 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (15:00) 7-P.Murray 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 11 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 54%

    (9:07) 5-M.Palardy punts 32 yards to TB 7, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-27-K.Seymour.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 7 at the 33 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 69%

    (3:05) 7-P.Murray 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 1 at the 3 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (:45) 72-T.Moton and 69-T.Larsen reported in as eligible. 28-J.Stewart left guard to TB 2 for 1 yard (92-W.Gholston; 98-C.McDonald).