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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 62

Carolina Panthers 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 5-M.Palardy punts 46 yards to TB 16, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.13 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP