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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 3

Carolina Panthers 15 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19

What Actually Happened

(:45) 72-T.Moton and 69-T.Larsen reported in as eligible. 28-J.Stewart left guard to TB 2 for 1 yard (92-W.Gholston; 98-C.McDonald).

The Three Options

GO +3.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +5.56 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +2.75 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.15 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model