Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 74

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 2-A.Lee punts 52 yards to SEA 22, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 38 for 16 yards (43-H.Reddick). PENALTY on SEA-42-D.Hill, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at SEA 22. Penalty on SEA-28-J.Coleman, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.19 EP
54% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 74, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model