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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
@
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
Sunday 2017-12-31 · 16:25 CenturyLink Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread 8.0 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

ARI
31.5%
SEA
68.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.165 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Drew Stanton (ARI): -0.200 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ARI defense: -0.221 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • SEA offense: -0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.043 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 20
–
SEA 24
Projected margin: SEA by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

ARI

Josh Bynes LB Questionable Ankle
Troy Niklas TE Questionable Ankle
Elijhaa Penny RB Questionable Hand
Earl Watford G Questionable Ankle
Kerwynn Williams RB Questionable Quadricep

SEA

D.J. Alexander LB Out Concussion
Nazair Jones DT Out Foot
Luke Willson TE Questionable Ankle
Luke Joeckel G Questionable Foot
Nick Vannett TE Questionable Back
Bobby Wagner LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 26
–
SEA 24

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:05 TD ARI (9:05) 5-D.Stanton pass deep right to 13-Ja.Brown for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – SEA 0
  • Q1 08:55 TD SEA 4-P.Dawson kicks 64 yards from ARI 35 to SEA 1. 16-T.Lockett for 99 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 7 – SEA 6
  • Q1 07:15 FG ARI (7:15) 4-P.Dawson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. ARI 10 – SEA 7
  • Q2 12:23 TD ARI (12:23) 35-E.Penny up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – SEA 7
  • Q2 01:02 FG ARI (1:02) 4-P.Dawson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. ARI 20 – SEA 7
  • Q3 09:05 TD SEA (9:05) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 89-D.Baldwin for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 20 – SEA 13
  • Q3 04:26 FG ARI (4:26) 4-P.Dawson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. ARI 23 – SEA 14
  • Q4 13:08 FG SEA (13:08) 7-B.Walsh 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan. ARI 23 – SEA 17
  • Q4 10:31 TD SEA (10:31) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 89-D.Baldwin for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 23 – SEA 23
  • Q4 02:25 FG ARI (2:25) 4-P.Dawson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee. ARI 26 – SEA 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 8 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 73%

    (7:15) 4-P.Dawson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (5:34) 9-J.Ryan punts 41 yards to ARI 25, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:22) 2-A.Lee punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 19 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (1:14) 9-J.Ryan punts 32 yards to SEA 43, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 14 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (10:31) 9-J.Ryan punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:28) 2-A.Lee punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:04) 9-J.Ryan punts 53 yards to ARI 21, Center-69-T.Ott. 21-P.Peterson ran ob at ARI 30 for 9 yards (35-D.Shead). PENALTY on ARI-28-J.Bethel, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 30.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (4:26) 2-A.Lee punts 52 yards to SEA 22, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 38 for 16 yards (43-H.Reddick). PENALTY on SEA-42-D.Hill, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at SEA 22. Penalty on SEA-28-J.Coleman, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (2:33) 9-J.Ryan punts 58 yards to ARI 19, Center-69-T.Ott. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 26 for 7 yards (23-N.Thorpe).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 6 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 78%

    (1:02) 4-P.Dawson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 6 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 63%

    (10:23) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 88-J.Graham to ARI 15 for 20 yards (28-J.Bethel; 36-B.Baker).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 13 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (7:24) 9-J.Ryan punts 28 yards to ARI 46, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 2 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 63%

    (4:26) 4-P.Dawson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 11 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 47%

    (1:54) 9-J.Ryan punts 30 yards to ARI 11, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 6 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (:56) 2-A.Lee punts 55 yards to SEA 30, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 40 for 10 yards (43-H.Reddick; 28-J.Bethel).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 73%

    (13:08) 7-B.Walsh 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 8 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:26) 2-A.Lee punts 48 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 40 for 27 yards (43-H.Reddick).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:34) 2-A.Lee punts 41 yards to SEA 33, Center-46-A.Brewer. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at SEA 35 for 2 yards (28-J.Bethel).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:20) 9-J.Ryan punts 46 yards to ARI 14, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-47-P.Dawson.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 24 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 85%

    (2:25) 4-P.Dawson 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 9 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 75%

    (:37) 7-B.Walsh 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.